The Presidential Campaigns Probably Aren’t About You

Posted by on Jul 12, 2012

America is currently experiencing the worst Presidential election campaigns that money can buy.

The irony is, that the campaigns probably aren’t about you.

Keep this in mind: America is a 51-49% country. Partisans have already decided how they are going to vote.

What Obama and Romney need are independent voters, the estimated 6 percent of people who haven’t made up their minds – in swing states.

For the Presidential election is decided via Electoral College. So dismiss every national poll you see as interesting, but actually somewhat irrelevant to the result. The key polls are those in swing states – and everything both candidates are now doing is to try and win those who are undecided in these areas.

The winner of this Presidential election will thus be the politician who wins the middle ground. Which is one of the reasons why, although President Obama should be losing this election with the way economy is, he’s still right up there. Romney had to go way to the right in the primaries and the question is – how long will that stay in voters’ minds.

My July 2012 call for November 2012? Barring all Eurozone meltdowns (Merkel is Obama’s best friend right now; the misbehaving monolith that is the Eurozone, Romney’s), I believe it will be a 2 point election. And very possibly that one candidate will win the popular vote and the other the electoral college. Which would mean Obama for a second term, by a whisker – and the result may just end up in the Supreme Court again…